The Recs vs The Tony Awards Predictions

By The Recs SCD - Steve Coats-Dennis 4 minutes ago

The Recs’ editor and chief New York critic discuss the potential Tony Award nominations for 2026

As we approach the Tony Award nominations, The Recs’ editor Steve Coats-Dennis and Chief New York reviewer Randall David Cook have a chin wag about who are likely to receive the coveted nods from the Tony Awards jury – and who might not.

Steve: Well this is exciting – our first year of covering New York theatre on The Recs – and our first Tony Awards.
I should thank you for all the brilliant work you’ve put in covering the Big Apple as our one-man review machine!
I think I know the answer but how would you rate this Broadway season?

Randall David: I’ll start by thanking you for having The Recs make that brave leap across the pond! 

This first year of covering New York theatre has been eye-opening and eventful. We’ve both learned a great deal, I think. And now we are approaching the culmination of the 20250-2026 theatre season: The Tony Awards. 
 
To answer your question: How would I rate this Broadway season?  Anaemic until April. 
Only two new musicals opened in the fall: Queen of Versailles and Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York). And once the new year hit, there were exactly two Broadway openings in the winter, both play revivals: Bug in January, and Every Brilliant Thing in March. 
 
Then with the spring showers of April came the deluge of Broadway shows, most of them excellent. Wildly and unexpectedly, it’s some of the star vehicles that haven’t been shining so bright while most of the new and revived musicals have turned out to be better than expected.  
 
Steve: Speaking of musicals then, shall we plunge in with some wildly gratuitous speculation? 
 
Shall we start with Best Revival of a Musical? 
 

RDC: Sure! This will be a two-horse race, though horse is the wrong descriptor for a competition that is going to be far more felinesque than equine. 

 
Officially five musicals are eligible, which feels absurd since one of those eligible shows is a touring production of Mamma Mia that came into town for a stay as long as an extended Ibiza remix of “Dancing Queen.”
 
Three will likely be nominated, but really two are in play for the trophy and will definitely be nominated: Cats: The Jellicle Ball and Ragtime. Chess likely will grab the third spot, mainly because it was a historical flop its first time out and now is still running strong, at least while Lea Michele is in it.
 
That fourth spot, should there be one, will be The Rocky Horror Show, which opened right before the Tony nod deadline and has as a result not gotten nearly as much attention as the other three.  
 
Steve: So it’s between The Rum Tum Tugger Show… what’s it called again? Oh yes, Cats: The Jellicle Ball. And Ragtime. 
Steve: Shall we be brave slash foolhardy and pick a winner? I’d like it to be Cats because that has been such a reinvention (and one I’d look to see transferring to the UK) but I think Ragtime will win. 
 
RDC: You’re brave! I want to see how these nominations play out before I predict a winner. I expect Ragtime will get a lot of acting nods, but if Cats: The Jellicle Ball gets some of its dancing kitties nominated, it may indicate a momentum that can’t be stopped.
 
Both Ragtime and Cats: The Jellicle Ball will get their directors nominated for Best Direction of a Musical, and whoever gets the other two slots might indicate which new musical has the most fans. 
 
Speaking of new musicals, there aren’t exactly many choices. Six to be exact, with one long gone, and another likely to soon bite the dust. Or rather: sand.  
 
Steve: And sadly not quicksand though equally as deadly. Poor Beaches. Sorry finished that too soon. Poor Beaches ticket buyers. 
 
That show does have one big positive – if you’re claustrophobic or hate crowds, it’s the place for you! Pick a row, and row and you’ll have it to yourself. It’s been quite incredible to watch it cling on until the nominations with such empty houses. 
 
Surely it’ll only get a nomination for Jessica Vosk? It won’t get a Best Musical nod surely? 

RDC: No, it most definitely won’t. 

There are six musicals eligible for Best Musical, and four will be nominated, so this category is suspense-free at the moment. Beaches and Queen of Versailles won’t make the cut, which will leave the other four to fight it out once nominated.
 

So, to recap. we predict:

Best Musical: Titanique, Schmigadoon! Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) and The Lost Boys

Best Revival of a Musical: Ragtime, Cats: The Jellicle Ball, and The Rocky Horror Show
 
I’m switching my guess from Rocky Horror to Chess because the former got much better reviews than the latter. But it’d be far more fun to see Chess get that third spot, don’t you think?
 
As for Jessica Vosk getting nominated, well, timing is everything, because she might. The Best Actress in a Musical category is nowhere near as stacked as last year — Audra McDonald in Gypsy, Nicole Scherzinger in Sunset Boulevard, Megan Hilty and Jennifer Simard in Death Becomes Her, Jasmine Amy Rogers in Boop!, not to forget some who didn’t even get nominated, including Sutton Foster in Once Upon a Mattress and Helen J. shen in Maybe Happy Ending —  so we are about to see a lot of first-time nominees pop in where there’s a vacuum.
 
And now I’m going to say something that is potentially controversial.
 
Say what you want about the show, I’d posit that Kristin Chenoweth should not only be nominated for Queen of Versailles, she should possibly be a contender to win. Winning ain’t gonna happen, but the nominators might put her in if they can separate her performance from the show as a whole. That’s a big ole IF. The truth is that none of the other contenders have roles that even come close to what was required of Chenoweth, except for maybe the wonderful Marla Mindelle from Titanique. She’s a shoo-in, as are Christiani Pitts from Two Strangers (Cake) and Caissie Levy from Ragtime, who leads the pack because she’s a vet who’s never been nominated. The fourth nominee feels like Sara Chase from Schmigadoon!, as that show has turned out to be better than everyone expected and is riding a wave of affection.
 
And that leaves that fifth spot. It’ll be one of these three: Lea Michele for Chess, Vosk for Beaches, and Chenoweth for QoV. What say you?  

Steve: Tricky one – I’d say Vosk. For carrying that whole show and doomed enterprise on her shoulders. 

Best Actor in a musical thoughts – and this will be another close one by my reckoning…

RDC: Not so close, actually. At least not for the imminent winner, Joshua Henry from Ragtime. His victory is already a foregone conclusion. Which means that for everyone else, the nomination will be the reward. 

Sam Tutty from Two Strangers (Cake) and Brandon Uranowitz are definitely getting nominated, and I think Nicholas Christopher will as well thanks to his killer act-one closer “Anthem” from Chess. 
 
It’s that fifth spot that is a toss-up: Luke Evans from Rocky Horror or LJ Benet from The Lost Boys will likely nab it. 

Steve: I may slightly disagree here – not virulently – but LJ Benet is definitely up there. I would guess it’s between him and Sam Tutty. As for that I’m-passing-a-particularly-difficult-stool rendition of Anthem – no, not for me. 

Since we are on actors, shall we segue onto Best Actor in a play? 

RDC: Guffaw. Poor “Anthem”! 
 
I do think LJ Benet might grab that fifth slot, especially since The Lost Boys has a lot of momentum at the moment. Plus, he’s great in it.
 
Two men are obvious choices for Best Actor in a play: John Lithgow in Giant, and Nathan Lane in Death of a Salesman. Lithgow already has two Tonys, and Lane three, but one of them is going to be adding another to their collection.
 
After that, it gets murkier.
 
Two drastically different performances are also likely to be included in the top five: Mark Strong in Oedipus, and Daniel Radcliffe for Every Brilliant Thing. 
 
As for that fifth nominee spot, two-time Oscar winner Adrien Brody is making his Broadway debut with Fear of 13, and he was nominated for an Olivier for his work, but his performance and the show have not been well-received here. It’s hard to ignore his pedigree, and people seem to have a love/hate response to his performance, and love might win this game for him. But I’m gonna go out on a limb and predict Will Harrison, who gave a terrific performance in Punch.
 
Which brings up an important point. The shows still running have a great advantage over those that have closed. Will Strong and Harrison be remembered? Time will tell. 
 
Steve: I think that Lane and Lithgow are the only likely winners. I loved what Daniel Radcliffe accomplished – proud of his Brit abroad but the Ls have this one in the bag. 
 
Where next? 
 
RDC: You have every reason to be. Radcliffe brings such great heart to his show, and has managed to make a hit out of a show that started out in a tent behind Summerhall at the Edinburgh Fringe Festival.
 
Other reasons to be proud: The Best Actress in a play category, where Lesley Manville is certain to be nominated for Oedipus.
 
She’s a definite, as is Susannah Flood from Liberation, and, I think, very recent Oscar nominee Rose Byrne for Fallen Angels. 
 
Three ladies will likely be vying for those final two spots, which aren’t as easily guessed. Carrie Coon did a great job in Bug, and Laurie Metcalf, who will definitely be nominated for featured actress, could be nominated as a lead as well, for Little Bear Ridge Road. And finally, don’t forget the very popular Ayo Edebiri, making her Broadway debut in Proof. 
SCD: So this is my personal first year commenting professionally on the Tonys so a lot of it is finding feet and understanding how the Tonys Awards work.
 
I love that Meryl (Streep, the least needed parentheses ever) waxed lyrical about Laurie Metcalf’s performance in Death of a Salesman this week – and that’s surely has to boost her Tony standing? 
 
So this brings us to Play Revival….

RDC: Yes, the Death of a Salesman press team has wisely had that video of La Streep rhapsodizing about Laurie Metcalf’s Linda Loman playing everywhere. And Metcalf is a shoo-in to be nominated in the featured actress category, once the Tony Nominating Committee ruled that the role was a featured one. Metcalf is credited above the title, and that’s the main criteria for how an actor is nominated for lead or featured in any category. 

 
Then around Tony time, it becomes a game, where show producers make appeals to the committee for an actor to be considered lead or featured despite their respective billings. That’s how Don Cheadle is now being considered in the featured category for Proof. 
 
The Play Revival is possibly the most competitive category of the season.
 
The possible nominees: Death of a Salesman, Oedipus, Art, Becky Shaw, Marjorie Prime, Fallen Angels, Proof, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, Every Brilliant Thing, and Waiting for Godot.
 
Whew.
 
This production of Oedipus being considered a revival is ABSURD. Yes, it’s based on the Sophocles, but without question it’s its own thing. But the committee has ruled! 
 
The only two plays that are definitely not being nominated were both fall productions: Art and Waiting for Godot.
 
To my mind, four of these have to be nominated: Death of a Salesman, Oedipus, Becky Shaw, and Marjorie Prime. I’ll be gutted if Becky Shaw or Marjorie Prime don’t get in.
 
As for the fifth nominee… It’s hard to turn down the exquisiteness of August Wilson’s brilliant text in Joe Turner’s Come and Gone, and the committee may be unable to, and that’d be understandable. But I’m wondering if Every Brilliant Thing can swing in there…

SCD: It strikes me that if Every Brilliant Thing fails to get a nomination that it nails the Tony Awards against popularity. I’ve yet to see any criticism against Daniel’s performance. Am also slightly confused how this is a revival when it hasn’t been performed on Broadway? 

RDC: That is confusing, and a lot is being written about that at the moment, so let me quote something official: “A play on Broadway is generally considered a “classic” for Best Revival eligibility if it has been previously produced on Broadway or has achieved significant, long-term recognition in the theatrical canon through regional or Off-Broadway productions. The Tony Awards Administration Committee makes this determination on a case-by-case basis.”

And in this case, they decided it is a classic.

I think it should be considered a new play, but to be fair, it premiered in 2013 in the UK, was produced Off-Broadway for an extended run in 2014, and has since been performed in regional theaters everywhere.

So like Cosette, it’s gotten around.

Steve: Ha! So last one to consider for this year’s Tony Awards… Best Play. Liberation, Giant and maybe Little Bear Ridge Road are the main contenders? 

RDC: Yes. And Liberation just won the Pulitzer Prize, so that gives it some extra juice. Even though the Tony nominations were decided before that prize was announced, that will give the play some momentum moving forward.

Four will be nominated. Giant and Liberation are the two definites, and I imagine The Balusters has a spot secured as well.
 
As for that last spot, it’ll probably be Little Bear Ridge Road versus Punch, which a few weeks ago won the Olivier for Best Play. 
 
I think people are sleeping on Punch a bit because it opened in the fall, but it’s a beautiful play, and James Graham is not new to the Tonys. I predict Punch beats Little Bear to the punch. 
Steve: As a Brit and as a site here in the UK who champions regional productions, that would be spectacular that Nottingham Playhouse’s Punch could be a Tony nom. 
 
It’s certainly going to be an interesting set of nominations this year. So before we finish – and perhaps have to wipe off the egg on our face – are there any wild card votes you want to see? Or are there anything we should be looking at which might tip the wink to eventual winners? 

RDC: Absolutely. 

To get an idea of which new plays and new musicals are favored, check out the best director categories. They’re composed of directors from the new works and the revivals, so the director nominees from the new shows who get in definitely reveal which way the wind is blowing. 
 
Also, as in general with almost all awards, shows with the most nominations in all the categories tells us the ones that are most beloved. 
 
Wild Cards to look out for:
– Punch: Best Play, and Will Harrison for Best Actor
-Schmigadoon!: Isabella McCalla, Featured Actress
-Titanique: Melissa Barrera, Layton Williams and Jim Parsons in the featured actor categories
-Cats: The Jellicle Ball: Sydney James Harcourt and Junior LaBeija in the featured actor categories
-The Balasters: Marylouise Burke and Richard Thomas in the featured actor categories
-Queen of Versailles for anything besides Original Score

Steve: Thank you for those and for your insight as always, Randall. 

Right or wrong, I have to say I’m looking forward to our first Tony Awards with The Recs having covered so much of this Season – a pretty impressive feat for a UK-based site of our size. I think it’ll be particularly telling for our Anglo-American audience to see how much the talent from either side of our shores are making an impact across the Pond in both directions. 

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