The Tony Awards 2026: The Recs’ Final Predictions

By The Recs RDC - Randall David Cook 16 hours ago

It’s Tony time! And The Recs’ Chief NYC Reviewer, Randall David Cook, is staring into his crystal ball…

It’s Tony time!

Broadway’s biggest event of the year is this Sunday, and we here at The Recs are ready to give you our sagacious guesses as to who’s going to take home the trophies. New musicals might have struggled during the 2025-2026 season, but there are some bright lights in that depressing sea of red, not to mention two exciting musical revivals duking it out for Best Revival. The play side has been much richer, especially the revivals, leading to some down-to-the-wire contests.

BEST PLAY

The Balusters by David Lindsay-Abaire
Giant by Mark Rosenblatt
Liberation by Bess Wohl
Little Bear Ridge Road by Samuel D. Hunter 

 

The Scoop: Not since Wendy Wasserstein has an American woman won this award, and she was the first. It’s truly time for the second, so Bess Wohl, get that speech ready. You rightly deserved the Pulitzer you won last month, and now it’s time to get some more hardware.

Possible Upset: The only thing really working against Liberation is the fact that it’s closed. If the recency bias kicks into overdrive, the still-running (and financially successful) Giant could prevail despite not meeting the high expectations Broadway had for it before its arrival.

Image by Little Fang

BEST MUSICAL 

The Lost Boys
Schmigadoon!
Titaníque
Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

 

The Scoop: All four shows have their merits, but Titanique is, at heart, a jukebox musical, and those don’t tend to win this top award. And Two Strangers feels a bit too slight. Much as we love The Lost Boys, Schmigadoon! is a veritable valentine to the Golden Age of musicals, and hard to resist. Plus it’s hilarious.

 Possible Upset: The Lost Boys, and we won’t be mad about it.

Image by Matthew Murphy

BEST REVIVAL OF A PLAY

Becky Shaw
Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Every Brilliant Thing
Fallen Angels
Oedipus

The Scoop: This season has been an incredible one for play revivals — The Recs is still aghast that Marjorie Prime didn’t get nominated here — but a superb production of what is considered by many to be America’s greatest play is hard to beat. And won’t be. Attention will once again be paid to Arthur Miller’s classic. The bigger, more pressing question is: Will recently exiled producer Scott Rudin take to the stage if Salesman wins?

 Possible Upset: Oedipus really should be in the Best Play category here, but behind-the-scenes shenanigans have landed it here. So if there is an upset to be had, it’ll be the laceratingly mean Becky Shaw, an unexpected critical hit of the season, and the revival that no one realized they really needed.

Image by Emilio Madrid

BEST REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ragtime
The Rocky Horror Show

The Scoop: The Rocky Horror Show will not show. This award is between two fantastic revivals, both of which are superior to their original productions. Ragtime is very much a show for this political moment, a heart-rending excavation of the losses that make the American dream possible for others. Cats: The Jellicle Ball is a total rethinking and reinvention of a much-derided musical whose very title had become shorthand for a bad show that somehow runs forever. Who doesn’t love a great — gulp — underdog story? The meows have it. 

Possible Upset: If the kitties don’t get it, Ragtime absolutely will.

mage by Matthew Murphy and Evan Zimmerman for MurphyMade

BEST ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Rose Byrne, Fallen Angels
Carrie Coon, Bug
Susannah Flood, Liberation
Lesley Manville, Oedipus
Kelli O’Hara, Fallen Angels

The Scoop: All these ladies were great, but Lesley Manville will win, and she better thank her playwright and director Robert Icke for that amazing monologue he gave her near the end of the play. Jocasta never had it so good, diva-wise.

Possible Upset: Susannah Flood was the center and soul of Liberation. Though she lacks the name recognition of her fellow nominees, she’d be a worthy and inspired winner.

Image by Julieta Cervantes

BEST ACTOR IN A PLAY

Will Harrison, Punch
Nathan Lane, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
John Lithgow, Giant
Daniel Radcliffe, Every Brilliant Thing
Mark Strong, Oedipus

The Scoop: This one’s a battle between two prior winners, both with multiple Tonys already. Nathan Lane won more recently, which oddly is working against him here, especially since it’s been a few moons since the much-beloved John Lithgow has grabbed a trophy. Both are giving stunning performances playing irascible, problematic men, but The Recs is guessing Lithgow will be the victor, especially since this might be the only category Giant wins.

Possible Upset: Nathan Lane could very much win his fourth Tony, and it’d be deserved.

Image by Johan Persson

BEST ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL 

Sara Chase, Schmigadoon!
Stephanie Hsu, The Rocky Horror Show
Caissie Levy, Ragtime
Marla Mindelle, Titaníque
Christiani Pitts, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

 

The Scoop: Unlike last year’s brutal Audra-Nicole showdown, this year’s clutch of nominees has an obvious winner, an esteemed theatre veteran who’s in the right role at the right moment, proving that timing is everything: Caissie Levy.

Possible Upset: Marla Mindelle is the co-writer, producer and star of Titanique. She must be exhausted, but hopefully not so weary that she can’t run up those Radio City Music Hall stairs to accept her flowers if her name is called.

 

Image by Matthew Murphy

BEST ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Nicholas Christopher, Chess
Luke Evans, The Rocky Horror Show
Joshua Henry, Ragtime
Sam Tutty, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Brandon Uranowitz, Ragtime

 

The Scoop: With apologies to the other four very fine nominees, Joshua Henry is Sunday night’s sure bet. As Coalhouse Walker Jr., Henry shakes the rafters and stirs the soul with his booming voice and commanding presence, giving the kind of performance that becomes part of Broadway lore. Can’t wait to hear his speech.

Possible Upset: Not gonna happen.

Image by Matthew Murphy

BEST BOOK OF A MUSICAL 

Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Tye Blue, Marla Mindelle and Constantine Rousouli, Titaníque
David Hornsby and Chris Hoch, The Lost Boys
Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!

BEST SCORE 

Steve Bargonetti, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Cinco Paul, Schmigadoon!
The Rescues, The Lost Boys
Caroline Shaw, Death of a Salesman 

 

The Scoop: Look for Cinco Paul to win both of these awards as pre-cursors for the likely Best Musical win. Schmigadoon! is consistently witty in music and dialogue, and even after a whole lot of glorious silliness, is able to pack an emotional wallop at its end. 

Possible Upset: Jim Barne and Kit Buchan, the Brit boys who dared to write a brand new musical about carrying a cake across NYC. If Tony voters want to vote for a true original — and they often do — this is where it’ll happen.

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY 

Betsy Aidem, Liberation
Marylouise Burke, The Balusters
Aya Cash, Giant
Laurie Metcalf, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
June Squibb, Marjorie Prime

The Scoop: Laurie Metcalf is doing sublime work as Linda Loman. Plus this season she was terrific in Little Bear Ridge Road as well.

Possible Upset: June Squibb is 96. Marylouise Burke is 85. Both were magnificent. Metcalf is, at 70, a youth in comparison. Seeing as she already has two Tonys already, voters may decide she has plenty more time to get a third

Image by Emilio Madrid

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY 

Christopher Abbott, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Danny Burstein, Marjorie Prime
Brandon J. Dirden, Waiting for Godot
Alden Ehrenreich, Becky Shaw
Ruben Santiago-Hudson, Joe Turner’s Come and Gone
Richard Thomas, The Balusters

The Scoop: The biggest surprise of the season has been Alden Ehrenreich, who is making his Broadway debut in a truly impressive way, winning over audiences and critics as a flawed, acerbic money manager. Moreover, this is where voters can reward Becky Shaw, which should have received more nominations than it did.

Possible Upset: Many think that Christoper Abbott will swipe this one as part of the great momentum behind Salesman at the moment.

Image by Marc J. Franklin

BEST FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Shoshana Bean, The Lost Boys
Hannah Cruz, Chess
Rachel Dratch, The Rocky Horror Show
Ana Gasteyer, Schmigadoon!
Nichelle Lewis, Ragtime

The Scoop: In a category with no obvious winner, Shoshana Bean has the edge, as she gets to unleash her powerhouse voice in The Lost Boys and has already been nominated twice in the past four years.

Possible Upset: Nichelle Lewis has the most awards-bait role; she plays a tragic character who gets to sing Ragtime’s most hopeful duet just before she’s offed. Plus she’s singing opposite Joshua Henry and holding her own. In direct contrast to all that seriousness is Ana Gasteyer, who causes “Tribulation” late in Schmigadoon! and brings the house down. Neither Lewis nor Gasteyer should be discounted.

Image by Matthew Murphy

BEST FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Ali Louis Bourzgui, The Lost Boys
André De Shields, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Bryce Pinkham, Chess
Ben Levi Ross, Ragtime
Layton Williams, Titaníque 

The Scoop: Another category with no obvious winner. André De Shields would be a slam dunk if he hadn’t won this award fairly recently for Hadestown. And Ben Levi Ross does a lot with little in Ragtime. But The Recs can’t stop thinking about Ali Louis Bourzgui’s mesmerizing performance as David in The Lost Boys, and we’re guessing Tony voters can’t either.

Possible Upset: Any one of the five could win except Bryce Pinkham — not because he’s bad, but because his character is bloody annoying. That leaves the show-stopping Layton Williams, who crossed the pond to play the iceberg in Titanique after winning the Olivier in London. And now he could go 2-for-2. Brrrr…

[Recs Editor] Funny way to resign, Randall… You have one job and that was to cheer Ar Layton, Brit Pride in Pride Month, across the line for the win. That Iceberg will fell the competition, mark my limey words!

[RDC responds] Let me recant. The iceberg always wins! Always!

Image by Evan Zimmerman - please note The Iceberg always wins and the editor always get final picture approval - Layton for the win!

BEST DIRECTION OF A PLAY

Nicholas Hytner, Giant
Robert Icke, Oedipus
Kenny Leon, The Balusters
Joe Mantello, Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman
Whitney White, Liberation

The Scoop: Joe Mantello is one of Broadway’s finest directors, Salesman is the big hit of the season, and he’s not won a Tony in more than two decades. The award is his.

Possible Upset: Unlike Mantello, who had a classic text to explore, Whitney White brought a complicated new play to life. It’d be thrilling to see her win. 

BEST DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

Michael Arden, The Lost Boys
Lear deBessonet, Ragtime
Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Tim Jackson, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)
Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch, Cats: The Jellicle Ball

The Scoop: Zhailon Levingston and Bill Rauch are the main reason Cats: The Jellicle Ball is on Broadway. They turned something trite into something fabulous. 10s across the board. Now hand them their trophy.

Possible Upset: Lear deBessonet stripped Ragtime down to its basics, revealing its true fiery power. Voters who find Cats un peu trop may give her their vote.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Christopher Gattelli, Schmigadoon!
Ellenore Scott, Ragtime
Ani Taj, The Rocky Horror Show
Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Lauren Yalango-Grant and Christopher Cree Grant, The Lost Boys

 

The Scoop: Omari Wiles and Arturo Lyons will be rewarded for making those kitty cats spin, vogue, and dip the house down. And it’s good they’re used to battling, because they’ve got serious competition.

Possible Upset: Christopher Gattelli’s choreography in Schmigadoon! is sensational. His work appeals more to Broadway traditionalists — of which many are Tony voters — and he was a recent winner at the Chita Rivera Awards, where he went head-to-head with Wiles and Lyons for the same honor.

BEST ORCHESTRATIONS

Doug Besterman and Mike Morris, Schmigadoon!
Brian Usifer, Chess
Andrew Lloyd Webber, David Wilson, Trevor Holder and Doug Schadt, Cats: The Jellicle Ball
Ethan Popp, Kyler England, Adrianne “AG” Gonzalez and Gabriel Mann, The Lost Boys
Lux Pyramid, Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York)

 

The Scoop: Without question the category with the most colorful names, The Recs predicts that Schmigadoon! will take this one, as it reminds voters of classic musicals they still cherish.

Possible Upset: Wouldn’t it be fun to see Lord Lloyd Webber win for a show steeped in the world of LGBTQ+ Ballroom culture? It might happen.  

AS FOR THE REST…

The Recs predicts two shows will dominate all the design awards. On the play side, expect Arthur Miller’s Death of a Salesman to feel very much alive. And with the musicals, The Lost Boys will very much be found. The only exceptions will be for costumes. Among the plays, look for Jeff Mahshie’s gorgeous gowns in Fallen Angels to win. And in the musicals, there’s nary a doubt that Qween Jean will take it for Cats: The Jellicle Ball’s fab-u-lous feline attire. 

That’s it. Now time to make your own guesses and see if you can outguess The Recs. We doubt it.

Happy Tony Viewing!

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