The Recs Predicts The Oliviers 2026

By The Recs SCD - Steve Coats-Dennis 5 months ago

It’s the biggest, awardiest evening of British Theatre – and The Recs’ editor Steve Coats-Dennis is ready with some predictions.

With the stage almost set for the eagerly anticipated 50th anniversary Olivier Awards, broadcasting from the Royal Albert Hall tomorrow (12 April 2026), it seems a good time to cast an eye over the runners and riders in contention to lift these prestigious trophies.

The winners are chosen by “distinguished industry professionals, theatre luminaries and members of the public specifically chosen for their passion for London theatre”. In other words, the Oliviers are not always predictable. Katori Hall’s The Mountaintop winning best new play in 2010, anyone?

With the serviceable-but-runaway-hit Paddington The Musical and the superlative, limited engagement Into The Woods leading the pack with 11 nominations each, it will be interesting how much the final votes have an eye on future commercial ventures…

Let’s plunge into The Recs Predictions:

Best Theatre Choreographer

Fabian Aloise for Evita at The London Palladium

Ellen Kane for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre

Drew McOnie for Brigadoon at Regent’s Park Open Air Theatre

Lynne Page for American Psycho at Almeida Theatre

As much as The Recs have been joined up members of the Drew McOnie fan club since Drunk in 2014, there’s probably no stopping the sheer kinetic power of Fabian Aloise‘s thrilling work with Evita. In Jamie Lloyd’s production with minimal set, the choreo was everything. 

Best New Play

1536 by Ava Pickett at Almeida Theatre

Inter Alia by Suzie Miller at National Theatre – Lyttelton

Kenrex by Jack Holden & Ed Stambollouian at The Other Palace

Punch by James Graham at Young Vic & Apollo Theatre

An incredibly tight three-horse race – sorry Inter Alia, The Recs really didn’t share the critical consensus on this one – see our review HERE. Stereophonic, you were robbed of a nomination. 

Punch, which has had such deserved success of both sides of the Atlantic feels slightly as if it’s almost been around too long to win New Play. We wouldn’t be shocked or disappointed to see Ava Pickett winning, but we are rooting for the incredible, fresh Kenrex.

Best Revival

All My Sons by Arthur Miller at Wyndham’s Theatre

Arcadia by Tom Stoppard at The Old Vic

Much Ado About Nothing by William Shakespeare at Theatre Royal Drury Lane

The Seagull by Anton Chekhov, adapted by Duncan Macmillan & Thomas Ostermeier at Barbican Theatre

Finally, an easy one: if All My Sons doesn’t win, we’ll fall over. 

Best Director

Jordan Fein for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre

Luke Sheppard for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre

Ed Stambollouian for Kenrex at The Other Palace

Lyndsey Turner for 1536 at Almeida Theatre

Ivo van Hove for All My Sons at Wyndham’s Theatre

Good luck picking a winner here! You couldn’t say that any of these creatives wouldn’t be a worthy winner – in fact, it speaks to the level of directorial talent we can enjoy in the UK that this category is so competitive. 

We would love to see Ed Stambollouian pull off a shock win for Kenrex, but my gut says van Hove for All My Sons if they vote on merit, but we’re predicting Luke Sheppard as Paddington The Musical may end up being as irresistible to Olivier votes as marmalade sandwiches are to Peruvian bears, 

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett for The Seagull at Barbican Theatre

Marianne Jean-Baptiste for All My Sons at Wyndham’s Theatre

Julia McDermott for Weather Girl at Soho Theatre

Rosamund Pike for Inter Alia at National Theatre – Lyttelton

Rosie Sheehy for Guess How Much I Love You? at Jerwood Theatre Downstairs at Royal Court Theatre

This is where awards get annoying.

Rosamund Pike is in a role in which she delivers that script, that role with bravado… except what if you don’t get on board with that role in the script? We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again – Inter Alia is problematic.

Oh we would love so much for Julia McDermott to grab a surprise win for Weather Girl – but it isn’t likely to happen. 

Therefore we are going for an All My Sons win for Marianne Jean-Baptiste. 

Best Actor

Bryan Cranston for All My Sons at Wyndham’s Theatre

Sean Hayes for Good Night, Oscar at Barbican Theatre

Tom Hiddleston for Much Ado About Nothing at Theatre Royal Drury Lane

Jack Holden for Kenrex at The Other Palace

David Shields for Punch at Young Vic & Apollo Theatre

Cranston is almost certainly the winner – but Jack Holden felt like a breakthrough. Is there as much love amongst Olivier voters for Kenrex that The Recs has in our hearts for that show? Possibly not. It’ll go to Bryan Cranston. 

Best New Entertainment or Comedy Play

The Comedy About Spies by Henry Lewis & Henry Shields at Noël Coward Theatre

Every Brilliant Thing by Duncan Macmillan with Jonny Donahoe at @sohoplace

Oh, Mary! by Cole Escola at Trafalgar Theatre

Paranormal Activity by Levi Holloway at Ambassadors Theatre

Such a diverse category – which makes it harder to call. The transfer to London of Oh Mary! has not lit up the West End. Sales have been iffy and momentum is seriously faltering so a win would be a shock. Conversely, the electricity generated by and the unalloyed plaudits for Daniel Radcliffe on Broadway’s Every Brilliant Thing probably gives EBT more of a chance. The Comedy About Spies was a resounding return to form by Mischief but it’s comparing apples and oranges. What are you in the mood for today? While we adored The Comedy About Spies, we predict Every Brilliant Thing will take the award home.

Best Musical Revival

American Psycho, book by Roberto Aguirre-Sacasa, music & lyrics by Duncan Sheik, based on the novel by Bret Easton Ellis at Almeida Theatre

Evita, lyrics by Tim Rice, music by Andrew Lloyd Webber at The London Palladium

Into The Woods, music & lyrics by Stephen Sondheim, book by James Lapine at Bridge Theatre

The Producers, music & lyrics by Mel Brooks, book by Mel Brooks & Thomas Meehan at Garrick Theatre

There are only two ways this contest is going to end: Into The Woods oozed intelligence and sophistication, delivering a perfect production of a classic musical – but Evita captured the moment. Love it, loathe it, you could not ignore it. It hit the public consciousness perhaps more than any piece of theatre of the last year. 

I suspect the Oliviers will opt for Into The Woods as the less controversial option – but since the very meaning of revival is to bring something back to life, Evita at the Palladium roared with unexpected vitality – and is our winner. 

Best Actress in a Musical

Katie Brayben for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre

Danielle Fiamanya & Georgina Onuorah for Brigadoon at Regent’s Park Open Air Theatre

Jane Krakowski for Here We Are at National Theatre – Lyttelton

Jenna Russell for The Unlikely Pilgrimage Of Harold Fry at Theatre Royal Haymarket

Rachel Zegler for Evita at The London Palladium

There are no lesser nominees – but frankly, if this is not Rachel Zegler‘s night, what are we even doing? It was a performance that wrong-footed you, that you failed to acknowledge at your peril – Zegler made her character as fascinating and compelling as the spell that would have been cast by the infamous first lady of Argentina. All the energy of a modern-day pop star, all the talent, skill and nuance of a musical theatre leading lady. And that was before we got to the balcony. 

Best Actor in a Musical

Marc Antolin for The Producers at Garrick Theatre

James Hameed & Arti Shah for Paddington The Musical at Savoy Theatre

Andy Nyman for The Producers at Garrick Theatre

Jamie Parker for Into The Woods at Bridge Theatre

Diego Andres Rodriguez for Evita at The London Palladium

While Jamie Parker and Diego Andres Rodriguez would be our preferred choices, there will be no resisting the Unstoppable Marmalade Wave that will coast (or is that toast) James Hameed & Arti Shah to victory. 

Best New Musical

Here We Are, book by David Ives, music & lyrics by Stephen Sondheim at National Theatre – Lyttelton

Paddington The Musical, music & lyrics by Tom Fletcher & book by Jessica Swale at Savoy Theatre

Shucked, book by Robert Horn, music & lyrics by Brandy Clark & Shane McAnally at Regent’s Park Open Air Theatre

The Unlikely Pilgrimage Of Harold Fry, book by Rachel Joyce, music & lyrics by Passenger at Theatre Royal Haymarket

So Paddington The Musical arrived in London, and the sign around its IP-enticing neck might as well have read “Best New Musical”. It’s not a particularly thrilling year for the Oliviers’ half-century. Though whisper it: as not as disastrous as the equivalent in the upcoming Tonys across the Atlantic. 

Our suspicion is that Paddington will enjoy his furry coronation, will ruffle no feathers, will continue to boost sales in the UK and may very well announce a Broadway transfer for the 2026 / 27 Season (ICE permitting that Peruvian refugee across its borders). 

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